Technical Maintenance on Saturday, December 7, between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC. The site will be unavailable during that time.
Uploaded by Background Pony #38F1
 612x2314 PNG 1.23 MB
Interested in advertising on Derpibooru? Click here for information!
Furry Body Pillows - Preset and Custom Designs

Help fund the $15 daily operational cost of Derpibooru - support us financially!

Description

Page 890 - Tell Me the Odds
Probabilities and statistics are a heck of a thing. Very interesting, too, at least from an abstract standpoint.
I’m starting to wonder if I’ve asked this before, but any stories about gambling on long odds in a tabletop scenario? One-in-a-million chances, fate hanging in a single die roll, that kind of thing?
 
Transcript:  
Pinkie Pie: She’s accelerating!! She just rolled a 17, an 18, and a 19… If she rolls a 20, which gets her the spectacular Cutie Mark critical success, while she’s living up to her Element of Loyalty…! She can do something awesomazing that breaks the laws of physics! Like… BREAKING THE SOUND BARRIER AND CREATING A SONIC RAINBOOM!!! …And saving Rarity in the process.
(beat)
Applejack: Holy heck, YES.
Pinkie Pie: I told you it was a great idea!
DM: Oh boy, here it comes. The fast-talking.
Applejack: No no no, this actually works. You were basically making Rainbow roll a luck check. “Hey, maybe if you roll a couple o’ nat-20s, you can do somethin’.” But a high sequence, statistically speakin’, is just as unlikely.
Twilight Sparkle: 1/20 to the 4th power, or 1/160,000.
Applejack: Yeah, that.
Rarity: To put it another way: You asked for two aces or three of a kind. But this could be a high straight, which beats that hand! Maybe even a royal flush, if we consider the d20 to be a single suit…
Twilight Sparkle: You can’t really mix dice odds and card odds like that.
Rarity: I know. Merely trying to illustrate. Far more importantly, this outcome would be very flavorful.
DM: You’re biased because your character is about to die!!
Rarity: …
DM: …Aaaand I can’t believe I just said that. <sigh> You realize… And I’m not saying I buy this at all… This is all founded on the idea that Rainbow WILL roll a Natural 20 next, which is a five-freaking-percent chance.
Rainbow Dash: Hey, a second ago it was zero percent! My odds just went UP.
DM: I’m saying you shouldn’t hold out hope. Y’know what, just roll it and let’s move on. Let’s not build suspense.
Rainbow Dash: Will you honor it if I DO roll a 20?
DM: You won’t. You have severely underestimated Murphy’s Law.
Rainbow Dash: That’s it, you’re on! Let’s–
Pinkie Pie: WAIIIIT! That’s the die that keeps failing you at the last second! DON’T! ROLL IT!
Rainbow Dash: But… what am I supposed to do, then?
DM: Oh, brother…

safe2269215 artist:newbiespud1669 edit180853 edited screencap95631 screencap302509 applejack208118 fluttershy269267 misty fly720 pinkie pie266057 rainbow dash291020 rarity225966 soarin'18710 spitfire16196 twilight sparkle371554 earth pony546525 pegasus537430 pony1701909 unicorn582412 comic:friendship is dragons1858 g42127962 ...3435 clothes679264 comic140656 dialogue100300 falling3726 female1910982 flying58743 freckles48715 frown38517 grin67128 hat133513 hoof hold14223 lipstick18207 makeup45989 male586484 mare807297 megaphone468 messy mane11597 mountain8335 raised hoof76214 scared14948 screencap comic5637 smiling432311 stallion211724 unicorn twilight37684 uniform18228 wide eyes20424 wonderbolts4667 wonderbolts uniform8028 yelling4582

Comments

Syntax quick reference: **bold** *italic* ||hide text|| `code` __underline__ ~~strike~~ ^sup^ ~sub~

Detailed syntax guide