Policy Update - Rules changes incoming for AI content - Read Here
Images are being reindexed - do not be alarmed if some images take a while to show up. The initial index we did when switching the search engine turned out to be incomplete and inaccurate.
Uploaded by Background Pony #38F1
 612x2314 PNG 1.23 MB
Interested in advertising on Derpibooru? Click here for information!
Ministry of Image - Fanfiction Printing

Help fund the $15 daily operational cost of Derpibooru - support us financially!

Description

Page 890 - Tell Me the Odds
Probabilities and statistics are a heck of a thing. Very interesting, too, at least from an abstract standpoint.
I’m starting to wonder if I’ve asked this before, but any stories about gambling on long odds in a tabletop scenario? One-in-a-million chances, fate hanging in a single die roll, that kind of thing?
 
Transcript:  
Pinkie Pie: She’s accelerating!! She just rolled a 17, an 18, and a 19… If she rolls a 20, which gets her the spectacular Cutie Mark critical success, while she’s living up to her Element of Loyalty…! She can do something awesomazing that breaks the laws of physics! Like… BREAKING THE SOUND BARRIER AND CREATING A SONIC RAINBOOM!!! …And saving Rarity in the process.
(beat)
Applejack: Holy heck, YES.
Pinkie Pie: I told you it was a great idea!
DM: Oh boy, here it comes. The fast-talking.
Applejack: No no no, this actually works. You were basically making Rainbow roll a luck check. “Hey, maybe if you roll a couple o’ nat-20s, you can do somethin’.” But a high sequence, statistically speakin’, is just as unlikely.
Twilight Sparkle: 1/20 to the 4th power, or 1/160,000.
Applejack: Yeah, that.
Rarity: To put it another way: You asked for two aces or three of a kind. But this could be a high straight, which beats that hand! Maybe even a royal flush, if we consider the d20 to be a single suit…
Twilight Sparkle: You can’t really mix dice odds and card odds like that.
Rarity: I know. Merely trying to illustrate. Far more importantly, this outcome would be very flavorful.
DM: You’re biased because your character is about to die!!
Rarity: …
DM: …Aaaand I can’t believe I just said that. <sigh> You realize… And I’m not saying I buy this at all… This is all founded on the idea that Rainbow WILL roll a Natural 20 next, which is a five-freaking-percent chance.
Rainbow Dash: Hey, a second ago it was zero percent! My odds just went UP.
DM: I’m saying you shouldn’t hold out hope. Y’know what, just roll it and let’s move on. Let’s not build suspense.
Rainbow Dash: Will you honor it if I DO roll a 20?
DM: You won’t. You have severely underestimated Murphy’s Law.
Rainbow Dash: That’s it, you’re on! Let’s–
Pinkie Pie: WAIIIIT! That’s the die that keeps failing you at the last second! DON’T! ROLL IT!
Rainbow Dash: But… what am I supposed to do, then?
DM: Oh, brother…

safe2270144 artist:newbiespud1669 edit180902 edited screencap95656 screencap302577 applejack208179 fluttershy269357 misty fly720 pinkie pie266127 rainbow dash291124 rarity226049 soarin'18718 spitfire16198 twilight sparkle371671 earth pony546894 pegasus537803 pony1702897 unicorn582815 comic:friendship is dragons1858 g42128633 ...3438 clothes679722 comic140701 dialogue100351 falling3727 female1911944 flying58800 freckles48769 frown38535 grin67171 hat133606 hoof hold14233 lipstick18210 makeup46045 male586818 mare807797 megaphone468 messy mane11599 mountain8341 raised hoof76286 scared14954 screencap comic5637 smiling432669 stallion211922 unicorn twilight37705 uniform18253 wide eyes20426 wonderbolts4670 wonderbolts uniform8034 yelling4584

Comments

Syntax quick reference: **bold** *italic* ||hide text|| `code` __underline__ ~~strike~~ ^sup^ ~sub~

Detailed syntax guide