Policy Update - Rules changes incoming for AI content - Read Here
Uploaded by Background Pony #38F1
 612x2314 PNG 1.23 MB
Interested in advertising on Derpibooru? Click here for information!
My Little Ties crafts shop

Help fund the $15 daily operational cost of Derpibooru - support us financially!

Description

Page 890 - Tell Me the Odds
Probabilities and statistics are a heck of a thing. Very interesting, too, at least from an abstract standpoint.
I’m starting to wonder if I’ve asked this before, but any stories about gambling on long odds in a tabletop scenario? One-in-a-million chances, fate hanging in a single die roll, that kind of thing?
 
Transcript:  
Pinkie Pie: She’s accelerating!! She just rolled a 17, an 18, and a 19… If she rolls a 20, which gets her the spectacular Cutie Mark critical success, while she’s living up to her Element of Loyalty…! She can do something awesomazing that breaks the laws of physics! Like… BREAKING THE SOUND BARRIER AND CREATING A SONIC RAINBOOM!!! …And saving Rarity in the process.
(beat)
Applejack: Holy heck, YES.
Pinkie Pie: I told you it was a great idea!
DM: Oh boy, here it comes. The fast-talking.
Applejack: No no no, this actually works. You were basically making Rainbow roll a luck check. “Hey, maybe if you roll a couple o’ nat-20s, you can do somethin’.” But a high sequence, statistically speakin’, is just as unlikely.
Twilight Sparkle: 1/20 to the 4th power, or 1/160,000.
Applejack: Yeah, that.
Rarity: To put it another way: You asked for two aces or three of a kind. But this could be a high straight, which beats that hand! Maybe even a royal flush, if we consider the d20 to be a single suit…
Twilight Sparkle: You can’t really mix dice odds and card odds like that.
Rarity: I know. Merely trying to illustrate. Far more importantly, this outcome would be very flavorful.
DM: You’re biased because your character is about to die!!
Rarity: …
DM: …Aaaand I can’t believe I just said that. <sigh> You realize… And I’m not saying I buy this at all… This is all founded on the idea that Rainbow WILL roll a Natural 20 next, which is a five-freaking-percent chance.
Rainbow Dash: Hey, a second ago it was zero percent! My odds just went UP.
DM: I’m saying you shouldn’t hold out hope. Y’know what, just roll it and let’s move on. Let’s not build suspense.
Rainbow Dash: Will you honor it if I DO roll a 20?
DM: You won’t. You have severely underestimated Murphy’s Law.
Rainbow Dash: That’s it, you’re on! Let’s–
Pinkie Pie: WAIIIIT! That’s the die that keeps failing you at the last second! DON’T! ROLL IT!
Rainbow Dash: But… what am I supposed to do, then?
DM: Oh, brother…

safe2271443 artist:newbiespud1669 edit180975 edited screencap95706 screencap302658 applejack208263 fluttershy269507 misty fly720 pinkie pie266248 rainbow dash291272 rarity226138 soarin'18738 spitfire16200 twilight sparkle371836 earth pony547425 pegasus538409 pony1704206 unicorn583427 comic:friendship is dragons1858 g42130344 ...3438 clothes680556 comic140779 dialogue100465 falling3728 female1913375 flying58830 freckles48845 frown38561 grin67231 hat133738 hoof hold14250 lipstick18223 makeup46106 male587261 mare808627 megaphone469 messy mane11603 mountain8344 raised hoof76347 scared14968 screencap comic5640 smiling433199 stallion212109 unicorn twilight37775 uniform18274 wide eyes20440 wonderbolts4673 wonderbolts uniform8041 yelling4589

Comments

Syntax quick reference: **bold** *italic* ||hide text|| `code` __underline__ ~~strike~~ ^sup^ ~sub~

Detailed syntax guide