Page 890 - Tell Me the Odds

Probabilities and statistics are a heck of a thing. Very interesting, too, at least from an abstract standpoint.

I’m starting to wonder if I’ve asked this before, but any stories about gambling on long odds in a tabletop scenario? One-in-a-million chances, fate hanging in a single die roll, that kind of thing?

Pinkie Pie: She’s accelerating!! She just rolled a 17, an 18, and a 19… If she rolls a 20, which gets her the spectacular Cutie Mark critical success, while she’s living up to her Element of Loyalty…! She can do something awesomazing that breaks the laws of physics! Like… BREAKING THE SOUND BARRIER AND CREATING A SONIC RAINBOOM!!! …And saving Rarity in the process.
(beat)
Applejack: Holy heck, YES.
Pinkie Pie: I told you it was a great idea!
DM: Oh boy, here it comes. The fast-talking.
Applejack: No no no, this actually works. You were basically making Rainbow roll a luck check. “Hey, maybe if you roll a couple o’ nat-20s, you can do somethin’.” But a high sequence, statistically speakin’, is just as unlikely.
Twilight Sparkle: 1/20 to the 4th power, or 1/160,000.
Applejack: Yeah, that.
Rarity: To put it another way: You asked for two aces or three of a kind. But this could be a high straight, which beats that hand! Maybe even a royal flush, if we consider the d20 to be a single suit…
Twilight Sparkle: You can’t really mix dice odds and card odds like that.
Rarity: I know. Merely trying to illustrate. Far more importantly, this outcome would be very flavorful.
DM: You’re biased because your character is about to die!!
Rarity: …
DM: …Aaaand I can’t believe I just said that. <sigh> You realize… And I’m not saying I buy this at all… This is all founded on the idea that Rainbow WILL roll a Natural 20 next, which is a five-freaking-percent chance.
Rainbow Dash: Hey, a second ago it was zero percent! My odds just went UP.
DM: I’m saying you shouldn’t hold out hope. Y’know what, just roll it and let’s move on. Let’s not build suspense.
Rainbow Dash: Will you honor it if I DO roll a 20?
DM: You won’t. You have severely underestimated Murphy’s Law.
Rainbow Dash: That’s it, you’re on! Let’s–
Pinkie Pie: WAIIIIT! That’s the die that keeps failing you at the last second! DON’T! ROLL IT!
Rainbow Dash: But… what am I supposed to do, then?
DM: Oh, brother…