Bobbos

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Jun 27, 2017
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Most people in western countries work 5.5-6 days a week. That's 45-70 additional days off, so in total it's more like 65-90 days off. I really don't know how many days off he takes for himself but I believe it's in the range of 50-80. From your last posts it looks like you think all those days between an update and 4×0% are days off for him, but a year ago (maybe more) he explained what's going on in this gap. If I remember correctly - it's arranging files, fixing bugs/typos, searching for new assets and rethinking the story. This time he also had to deal with Patreon. How many days all this should take - I really don't know, but at the end I'm pretty sure he didn't take 14 days off...
I should have been more clear: When I'm talking about days off I'm talking about vacation days and don't include weekends into that.
 
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Sabertooth__

Well-Known Member
Sep 23, 2020
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what do not you understand? I asked if they don't play on the way of the sem in part 1 of the game .. this will affect the narrow in part 2 with him
I still am not sure. But based on what i understand from your message.

You need to play part 1 and play Sam's route if you want to continue Sam's route in Part 2.

Part 1 is a direct continuation of Part 2 and you need the finalsaves from part 1 exported to part 2. Based on your saves you will have content in part 2.

Currently Part 2 has NO content with Sam. He will have an update after the next update is released.
 

xxxorro

Active Member
Jan 18, 2021
875
11,874
Even though 230 seems like a suspicious round number, here is, again for **mere statistical purposes** the updated top 30 events based on the number of renders. (that's the kind of job we have to do 24/7 here in the basement of the federal building ;) ).

The upcoming tutoring job of v0.170 would place 9th in the list, right above the previous event on PD 12 with 226 renders.

top30after170.png

The number on the left are the PDs on which the event occurs. And with all the caveats that I explained last time on how the renders are counted and some events are split.
And, again, the purpose is just to put everything in context.
 
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Jun 18, 2022
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Even though 230 seems like a suspiciously round number, here is, again for **mere statistical purposes** the updated top 30 events based on the number of renders. (that's the kind of job we have to do 24/7 here in the basement of the federal building ;) ).

The upcoming tutoring job of v0.170 would place 9th in the list, right above the previous event on PD 12 with 226 renders.

View attachment 1987822

The number on the left are the PDs on which the event occurs. And with all the caveats that I explained last time on how the renders are counted and some events are splitter.
And, again, the purpose is just to put everything in context.
no kidding, the more renderers the more intense the event, this is what I noticed.
Besides yoga, it was a strange event
 
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palmtrees89

Engaged Member
Jul 3, 2021
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Most people in western countries work 5.5-6 days a week. That's 45-70 additional days off, so in total it's more like 65-90 days off. I really don't know how many days off he takes for himself but I believe it's in the range of 50-80. From your last posts it looks like you think all those days between an update and 4×0% are days off for him, but a year ago (maybe more) he explained what's going on in this gap. If I remember correctly - it's arranging files, fixing bugs/typos, searching for new assets and rethinking the story. This time he also had to deal with Patreon. How many days all this should take - I really don't know, but at the end I'm pretty sure he didn't take 14 days off...
You don't find it weird that L&P went from ~6 weeks downtime for one PD (roughly 2 weeks after 1/3rd PD updates) to about 5 months downtime for one PD (roughly 2 weeks after 1/10th PD updates)? Up to five months of absolute nothingness compared to previously 6 weeks, give or take.

You are correct, he did "explain" what's going on during these gaps, but it's funny how those gaps stay the same while the content is cut down to a third. But there's surely another great excuse waiting of which I'm unaware of yet. The newest excuse is his development of DOL, because he's totally not developed DOL before during all these years, huh?
 

roro

Member
May 29, 2017
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You don't find it weird that L&P went from ~6 weeks downtime for one PD (roughly 2 weeks after 1/3rd PD updates) to about 5 months downtime for one PD (roughly 2 weeks after 1/10th PD updates)? Up to five months of absolute nothingness compared to previously 6 weeks, give or take.

You are correct, he did "explain" what's going on during these gaps, but it's funny how those gaps stay the same while the content is cut down to a third. But there's surely another great excuse waiting of which I'm unaware of yet. The newest excuse is his development of DOL, because he's totally not developed DOL before during all these years, huh?
Up until now there had been only 3 gaps out of 9 (for this 1/10 of a PD) and I don't think they add up to 14×3 = 42 days (but I'm too lazy to verify it...). Let's check this number when he finishes this PD before intentionally giving pessimistic forecast (just like the one you gave here yesterday). And since I (and also everyone else here) don't really know his workflow and the way he really spends his working hours, I can't tell how many "gap days" went unnoticed between scenes when each update contained 1/3 - 1/2 PD. But if you must know, I also think those "gap days", if they continue the trend, are a bit too much.

I don't think DOL's development had been an excuse for him. It always been part of the 4×100% cycle, and last update isn't excluded. What you call "excuse" is his dealing with Patreon. But since we're talking about DOL, last update DOL had unique renders (oversized Dylan) which, as far as I'm aware, is a new thing...
 
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roro

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May 29, 2017
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I should have been more clear: When I'm talking about days off I'm talking about vacation days and don't include weekends into that.
But according to your posts, you're relying on his progress report, and this time his progress report clearly implies he had been working on weekends. Moreover, why didn't you take weekends off of the "gap days" you calculated? make it 10-12 days off instead of 14?
 
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Bobbos

Member
Jun 27, 2017
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But according to your posts, you're relying on his progress report, and this time his progress report clearly implies he had been working on weekends. Moreover, why didn't you take weekends off of the "gap days" you calculated? make it 10-12 days off instead of 14?
Calculated gap days? What are you talking about?
Are you talking about the vacation time?
Looks like I have to be even more precise: I'm talking about mandatory vacation time your employer has to give you in some countries. For example in Germany that time is 20 days in a year and only work days count for those 20 days.
And to be even more precise I've compared people with a normal 40 hours per week job with 20 vacations days a year with L&P and his most likely below 40 hours a week job and most likely much more vacation days per year.
 

dr.akhibadge

Member
Aug 31, 2019
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If this is the pace of progress of update soon the day would come that Sophia will be a urban legend. And she will be part of nursery syllabus for upcoming generation " how not spoil your years in wating for game update."
 

quency77

Newbie
Apr 13, 2020
37
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I’ve always considered the first 4x0% post as the start of development, and why wouldn’t I? What evidence is there that he’s doing any development, scene creation or otherwise, between release date and first progress report?

I think it’s more than reasonable to figure Renders per day based on first progress report and CS & rendering @ 100%.
I would agree that your method is more accurate to figure out renders per day if L&P's progress bars are also accurate. You use 4x 0% as an indicator that the developement of the new update has started, but you cannot be 100% sure that it is like that. You cannot say for sure when he actually starts developing, unless you trust the progress posts from L&P.

But everyone can check when he releases his updates and how many new renders are included. That are the only facts you can proof and trust.


The drawback in your method is that you are not considering L&P a human. This method treats him like a machine who immediately has to get to work after the update is released with no rest, no break and no personal life, no falling Ill and no days off, no time towards planning the next scene and so on. Just a man who must make this game 365 days a year.

So there are drawbacks to that too.
I'm not sure but didn't L&P himself said that he works 11 hour a day, every day? When some people talked about how he would take a 2 week break after every update, he denied it and said that in this 2 weeks he would answer mails and other stuff beside rendering.

L&P posts for every new update the approximate release date with the render count. So he uses the number of renders as an indicator on how big/long a update is. And I use this information to track his developement speed over the time by calculating the average renders per day for every update. It is just an simple illustration.

Most likely he has done more renders that didn't end in the game, and some renders can take more time as others. Also he doesn't just only do renders, there is also scripting, programming etc. And as you said he probably doesn't work 365 days a year, most of us would agree on this.
But nobody but himself can tell how much he works, how many renders he does and so on. The only information you can check is the release dates and render count for the updates.

People can check with the data I collected, if the developement speed got slower or faster in a certain timespan (no matter what reasons caused it). It's a useful information for people who consider to support him financially or are already doing it. They should at least know what they are getting into.
 
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roro

Member
May 29, 2017
466
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Calculated gap days? What are you talking about?
Are you talking about the vacation time?
Looks like I have to be even more precise: I'm talking about mandatory vacation time your employer has to give you in some countries. For example in Germany that time is 20 days in a year and only work days count for those 20 days.
And to be even more precise I've compared people with a normal 40 hours per week job with 20 vacations days a year with L&P and his most likely below 40 hours a week job and most likely much more vacation days per year.
Maybe it's my crappy English, so I'll try again.

When you're calculating his renders per day here, you're treating weekends as regular work days. When some people here say he's been taking two weeks off between updates, they're treating weekends as workdays (as if they assume the dev has to work on weekends). You're not new here, so I'm pretty sure you've seen this - when he didn't update his progress report for 1 day last week - some people here started with "is not moving today", basically expecting him to work 31 days a month. If you've been aware this month, he had updated his progress report almost each and every day - implying he had been working at weekends.

I know very well what you mean by "vocation days", but he doesn't have a proper employer and his vocations aren't regulated. So please tell me what's the difference between:
1. working 5 days a week + taking 20 days vocation (resulting with 124 days a year in which a person isn't doing work), and
2. working 7 days a week + taking 124 days vocation.
In terms of work days per year those 2 very different scenarios are exactly the same.

It's perfectly fine to expect him to work 7 days a week/30.5 days a month, but then you must allow him the same "days off of work" as you and most people in the western world have - which is 120-124...
 
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Bobbos

Member
Jun 27, 2017
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Maybe it's my crappy English, so I'll try again.

When you're calculating his renders per day here, you're treating weekends as regular work days. When some people here say he's been taking two weeks off between updates, they're treating weekends as workdays (as if they assume the dev has to work on weekends). You're not new here, so I'm pretty sure you've seen this - when he didn't update his progress report for 1 day last week - some people here started with "is not moving today", basically expecting him to work 31 days a month. If you've been aware this month, he had updated his progress report almost each and every day - implying he had been working at weekends.

I know very well what you mean by "vocation days", but he doesn't have a proper employer and his vocations aren't regulated. So please tell me what's the difference between:
1. working 5 days a week + taking 20 days vocation (resulting with 124 days a year in which a person isn't doing work), and
2. working 7 days a week + taking 124 days vocation.
In terms of work days per year those 2 very different scenarios are exactly the same.

It's perfectly fine to expect him to work 7 days a week/30.5 days a month, but then you must allow him the same "days off of work" as you and most people in the western world have - which is 120-124...
The renders per day thing is not an exact science but it's used to be able to somewhat quantify his development speed because the only 100% facts we have when it comes to the games development speed are the release dates and the renders we get on release day.
quency77 explained it better than me a couple of posts above.

Edit: It's of course possible to remove the weekends from the calculation but that would be pointless because the entire point is to roughly estimate his development speed to easily see if he got faster or slowed down and that wouldn't change by removing the weekends.
 
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roro

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May 29, 2017
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The renders per day thing is not an exact science but it's used to be able to somewhat quantify his development speed because the only 100% facts we have when it comes to the games development speed are the release dates and the renders we get on release day.
quency77 explained it better than me a couple of posts above.

Edit: It's of course possible to remove the weekends from the calculation but that would be pointless because the entire point is to roughly estimate his development speed to easily see if he got faster or slowed down and that wouldn't change by removing the weekends.
I know, and I don't suggest you (or anyone else) should make this calculation differently.
But quency77 also noted that not all renders were born equal. Last update was mostly Dylan and Amber, for more than half of the renders, and it had a better renders per day. This time it's at least 4 characters for most if not all of this update.
Also by comparing his render per day two years ago or more to his pace today we should take the quality change into consideration.
 
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Bobbos

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Also by comparing his render per day two years ago or more to his pace today we should take the quality change into consideration.
He also got more experience and better hardware which should have at least compensated for the increase in quality but the fact is that he slowed down.
 
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roro

Member
May 29, 2017
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He also got more experience and better hardware which should have at least compensated for the increase in quality but the fact is that he slowed down.
In terms of better equipment, he always said that scene creation is the bottle neck, not the rendering itself, and the better equipment has very small benefit for scene creation. But you're right here, that he had been slowing down a bit.
 
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Talcum Powder

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Feb 14, 2018
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Great idea.
So he just has to delay the progress reports to make himself look faster than he actually is.
Just work on the game for 1 months without putting out a progress report and then when it comes to the last 10 days just update everything by 10% per day.
And according to your way of doing it he now has significantly increased his development speed.
"My way" doesn't make him significantly faster or slower, his self-reporting determines that. The progress bars, for the two years (ot more?!! I've forgotten) I've been tracking them, have proven to be a moderately reliable predictor of when he's going to reach 4x100% development.

I have never once said I believe the progress reports are accurate or meaningful. They are self-reported by L&P, who has proven over the years to be unreliable and inconsistent. If he says he started development (4x0%) on a certain date, we can easily figure that time between the prior release and the first progress report he was taking time off. Whether you or anyone else thinks taking 11 days between the end of a 45-day development cycle and beginning the next is a well earned vacation, is purely an individual opinion.

To sum up: I am not making a positive or negative statement about any of it and am not trying to make L&P or anyone else look better or worse. I'm just trying to figure out approximately when the next release is going to come out because it is by a factor in the hundreds the most common question on F95, let alone this particular game thread.

And finally, in reference to the development post shared earlier today: If he releases on 8/25 or 8/26 then that's very much in line with the progress reports. If he releases on 8/30 he's either adding in some last minute animations (which aren't included in the progress updates to my knowledge) or he's going on a four-day fuckabout before publishing.
 
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